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I appeared on Silvio Canto Jr.'s talk show from Dallas yesterday.  It's here.

MARCH 15,  2011

OBAMA'S EXQUISITE TIMING – AT 8:55 P.M. ET:  Another exciting example of Barack Obama's priorities.  Never let 1) a budget crisis in the U.S. or 2) a nuclear crisis in Japan or 3) rebellions in the Mideast, from ruining a pefectly neat trip to a warm place with good food and terrific dancing.  Travel report from The Politico:

The crisis in Japan, the unresolved budget wars at home and continuing unrest in the Middle East have raised questions about whether President Obama will continue with business as usual on his trip to Latin America this weekend.

At a briefing with reporters on Tuesday, White House press secretary Jay Carney said no plans have changed, global crises notwithstanding.

“Obviously, the trip is on, and the president will be going to Latin America, and he's looking forward to having discussions with leaders in the region about our bilateral relationship,” Carney said.

Carney insisted that Obama is “capable” of maintaining contact with Washington throughout the trip, and National Security Adviser Tom Donilon will be traveling with him as well.

Yeah, just bring that iPhone along.  And if it gets lost, the iPad sends e-mails.

Asked by The Wall Street Journal’s Laura Meckler whether it was “awkward” for Obama to go to Latin America while “the rest of the world is exploding,” Carney, a little piqued, dismissed the question.

“Laura, he's the president of the United States,” he said. “And there are major issues all the time that the president has to contend with, which is one of the reasons why he has such a substantial support framework around him when he travels.”

COMMENT:  It's the appearances, Mr. Carney.  The appearances.  This trip, to vacation wonderlands like Brazil, can be put off.  The president's place right now is Washington, where he can call in any adviser for a face-to-face if needed.

George W. Bush was criticized for staying away from Washington for a day or so after the 9-11 attacks.  This president will go on a foreign trip despite crises breaking out all over and a growing reputation for indiffence of weak leadership.  He's either listening to the wrong people or not taking the advice of the right ones.

Ronald Reagan always understood the importance of symbolism.  This chap doesn't.

March 15, 2011      Permalink

A TALE OF SEVERAL POLLS – AT 8:27 P.M. ET:  We reported earlier that President Obama was registering only 43% approval in the daily Rasmussen poll.  Now along come two other polls showing him much stronger – a CNN poll has the president at 50%, and an ABC/Washington Post poll says 51% approve.

Why the dramatic differences between Rasmussen and the others? 

It's in the methodology.  Both CNN and ABC/Washington post take their surveys among "all adults," whereas Rasmussen polls only "likely voters," a far more significant sample.  Rasmussen explains the difference here:

It is important to remember that the Rasmussen Reports job approval ratings are based upon a sample of likely voters. Some other firms base their approval ratings on samples of all adults. President Obama's numbers are always several points higher in a poll of adults rather than likely voters. That's because some of the president's most enthusiastic supporters, such as young adults, are less likely to turn out to vote. It is also important to check the details of question wording when comparing approval ratings from different firms.

The method goes far toward determining the result.  Recall that in 1936 Liberty Magazine conducted a telephone poll that predicted that Alf Landon would defeat Franklin D. Roosevelt for the presidency.  The reason the poll was so wildly wrong was that Roosevelt's strength came mostly from the economic classes that didn't have telephones.  Thus, the poll was weighted toward likely Republican voters.

I'd go with Rasmussen.  Elections are decided by voters, not by "all adults."

March 15, 2011     Permalink

REMEMBER LIBYA? – AT 10:27 A.M. ET:  With attention focused on Japan, the civil war in Libya continues, and it's apparent that, day by day, Gadaffi is winning:

(CNN) -- Forces loyal to Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi have wrested control of the town of Zuwara from rebels, an opposition spokesman and an eyewitness told CNN Tuesday.

Separately on Tuesday, at least two airstrikes were reported targeting the eastern city of Ajdabiya by pro-Gadhafi military jets, eyewitnesses told CNN. Ajdabiya is one of the cities between pro-government forces and the opposition stronghold in Benghazi. If Ajdabiya is retaken by government forces, it would give pro-Gadhafi forces access to roads leading to the heart of the opposition's base.

Pro-Gadhafi forces with tanks and heavy artillery forcibly entered Zuwara Monday, clashing with rebels for several hours before subduing the town, the sources said.

Troops entered the town around 9 p.m. Monday and began shooting randomly into buildings, the opposition spokesman said, declining to be named for his safety. He is in Zuwara.

COMMENT:  In the meantime, The United States continues "consulting" with its allies.  An Arab League call for a no-fly zone over Libya – an extraordinary move for the Arab League – is being politely rebuffed, at least for now.  While France and Germany are in favor, and Barack Obama is voting "present," Germany, Italy and Turkey are opposed.  There will be further "consultations," perhaps ending in 2014 or so. 

And Saudi troops are now in Bahrain, to protect the local king.  Heartwarming.

March 15, 2011       Permalink

BULLETIN:  OBAMA'S POLL NUMBERS DROPPING LIKE A ROCK – AT 9:33 A.M. ET:  Rasmussen daily tracker just released shows devastating declines for the president, with dramatic declines since last week alone:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 20% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-two percent (42%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -22. That is the president’s lowest rating since September.

And...

Overall, 43% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty-seven percent (57%) disapprove.

Of course, the president has been in the low 40s before in approval, and has sprung back.  He was actually at 41% on September 9th.  But there is a steady building up of feeling about this president, and there may be a dive from which he cannot recover.  I don't think that point has been reached, but it will get closer if Mr. Obama continues to fail to lead, or if we suffer a sharp reversal in the economy.

March 15, 2011      Permalink

OBAMA'S DIVE CONTINUES – AT 9:11 A.M. ET:   Amidst the Libya crisis, the Japanese quake, and America's budget dilemma, there is much buzz in the press and across the internet about President Obama's lack of leadership, and, at times, seeming lack of interest.  Obama's reported comment that it would be easier to be president of China has gotten widespread notice, none of it positive.

Fox News sums up the image problem, which, in our view here, is an accurate reflection of the real problem, Barack Obama:

A conflict approaching civil war in Libya. An end-times tsunami in Japan. A Congress that can't reach a budget.
And ... gender inequality?

The topic of President Obama's weekend radio address has raised some eyebrows, as Obama has met mounting crises with the same restraint and cool that characterized his slow-and-steady campaign for president. To some critics, the tone set by the White House in light of recent upheaval may hurt the president's public image.

Amid chaos around the world and on Capitol Hill, Obama's Saturday radio address was devoted to Women's History Month and a call to pass the Paycheck Fairness Act, a proposal meant to address the income gap between men and women. Then, the president went golfing at Andrews Air Force Base.

"I don't know if they don't realize the disconnect and maybe they don't care ... but it does matter," Dana Perino, former White House press secretary under George W. Bush, told Fox News.

Former Bush adviser Karl Rove said that he doesn't "begrudge" the president for taking time out for recreation, but Libya and the budget in particular demand more involvement on Obama's part.

COMMENT:  The old expression applies:  Timing is everything.  Gender equality is a perfectly reasonable subject for a president, but not this week.  The president's radio address did indeed anger many observers.  It seemed like a throwback to the sixties, and a transparent attempt to shore up his base...at a time of major crisis.

Even Chris Matthews, normally an Obama partisan, who once spoke of feeling a tingle going up his leg (or down, I don't recall which) when Obama spoke, now compares Obama to Carter, and it wasn't meant as a compliment.

Niall Ferguson, the Harvard scholar who's emerged as a sane academic commentator on current affairs, has, somewhat angrily, called on Obama to at least give strong moral support to the Arab revolts. 

And even Democrats, like Senators Dianne Feinstein and Joe Manchin, are expressing frustration with the disappearing act in the White House.

And get this, from The Politico: 

PRESIDENT OBAMA is taping his NCAA picks today, and they’ll be revealed tomorrow on ESPN.

Nothing like a good set of priorities.

Further...stand by for poll numbers from Rasmussen, out shortly.  Advance word is that they're devastating.

March 15, 2011       Permalink

DISASTROUS ECONOMIC IMPACT – AT 9:01 A.M. ET:  With so much attention devoted to the possibility of radiation exposure from damaged nuclear plants in Japan, there's a tendency to ignore the economic impact of the quake and tsunami.  Economic damage can also result in human misery, even starvation in some places.  From NBC News:

Japanese stocks plunged 10.6 percent on Tuesday, posting the worst two-day losing streak since 1987, on reports of rising radiation near Tokyo, suggesting any deterioration at a quake-hit nuclear plant could trigger more panic selling led by hedge funds.

And...

During the trading day Japanese officials tried to calm the market to little avail and took measures to reduce short selling, such as placing limits on broker sales of stocks for arbitrage trading.

Americans are properly concerned about the economic impact here, although, being Americans, are thoughts first go to the human impact on the Japanese people.  But clearly, if our economy is affected, the impact could be worldwide, and there could be political effects as well as we move into 2012.

We should note that many Japanese industries are entirely shut down, unable to get materials, their employees unable to get to work because of gasoline shortages. 

Watch our markets today.

March 15, 2011      Permalink

THE MASS CONFUSION – AT 8:32 A.M. ET:  The fact is, we really know very little about what's going on with the Japanese nuclear plants.  We're told of explosions, radiation leakage, and warnings to civilians, but details are still scarce.

The issue, of course, isn't "radiation" in the air, but what kinds of radiation, and the amount.  Obviously, every precaution must be taken.  But please recall that in the worst nuclear-plant accident in the United States, at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania, no one died.  It is a time for hard work and precision, not panic or wild stories. 

From CNN:

Sendai, Japan (CNN) -- A deepening crisis at a damaged nuclear power plant compounded the misery in Japan Tuesday as the death toll rose to 2,734 and the stock market plummeted for a second straight day.

In areas decimated by the strongest quake in the country's history, survivors huddled in cramped shelters with temperatures forecast to drop below freezing by Wednesday. And in cities spared the devastation, the specter of radioactive exposure loomed large in rattled residents' minds.

"I think from a sanity standpoint I'm trying to side with the cool-headed point of view because I don't want to think about the possibly of a full-blown meltdown," said Osaki resident Tyler Martin.

Radiation level readings have decreased at the quake-damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said Tuesday afternoon.

"The level has come down to the level to cause no harm to human health, according to the report I have received," Edano said.

But for many, calming jittery nerves is becoming increasingly difficult as the situation at the damaged facility looks increasingly dire with each passing day.

COMMENT:  No one wishes to minimize the urgency, or the threat, but the CNN report seems rational.  I've seen some well-qualified nuclear scientists on television, and they really can't provide significant answers at this point.  It will take more time before we get a clear picture.  Some speculation seems driven more by political beliefs than by science, and where have we seen that before?

March 15, 2011     Permalink

MARCH 14,  2011

BULLETIN:  THE LEFT HAS FOUND A CAUSE – AT 9:39 P.M. ET:  I couldn't be more delighted.  The left has found a cause that keeps it occupied and out of the way.  What is this momentous crusade?  Give a read, from The Politico:

Liberals have found another reason to be angry with President Barack Obama: the exit of P.J. Crowley, the State Department spokesman who resigned Sunday just days after criticizing the Pentagon over its treatment of WikiLeaks suspect Pfc. Bradley Manning.

So the heavy issue in liberalism now is the State Department spokesman?   Quite a comedown from "Bush lied, thousands died."  Ah, for the good old days, and the big time.

Jane Hamsher, an Obama antagonist at the liberal blog FireDogLake — a site that perhaps epitomizes former White House press secretary Robert Gibbs’s “professional left” epithet — is leading the charge. In a Monday post, she backed a march from the State Department to the White House to protest Manning’s alleged mistreatment and Crowley’s abrupt departure.

“With his firing of Crowley, Obama makes a mockery of his own claim to be a constitutional scholar who supports transparency in government,” she wrote.

Other commentators chimed in with disappointment and outrage at Obama’s careful statement on the matter at Friday’s news conference — and the subsequent resignation of a high-profile critic from within the administration.

Salon’s Glenn Greenwald compared Manning’s reported treatment with “the same detainee abuse against which [Obama] campaigned” and accused the president of “ongoing subservience to the military that he supposedly ‘commands.’ It is the way in which this Manning/Crowley behavior bolsters the regime of secrecy and the president’s obsessive attempts to destroy whistleblowing that makes this episode so important and so telling.”

COMMENT:  So Obama faces thunder from those citizens to the left of him – all 12 of them.  Look, this is good recreation for the left.  It's wholesome, doesn't involve controlled substances, and there are no come-hither women involved. 

Of course, what the left doesn't understand, and can never understand, is that public officials have responsibilities, not just rights.  Crowley violated his responsibilities, and was properly dispatched.  Starting a war with the Pentagon was not in his job description.

We should find other causes for the left, just to keep the true believers busy.  Like all children in a sandbox, they need supervision, and toys.

March 14, 2011      Permalink

THE SAUDI FACTOR – AT 8:57 P.M. ET:  It is hard for us to take our eyes off the coverage of Japan, with the high drama at the nuclear plants.  But other things are happening that may have long-term implications for the United States, including a rise in tension with Saudi Arabia, that great filling station in the sand.  From The New York Times:

WASHINGTON — Even before Saudi Arabia sent troops into Bahrain on Monday to quell an uprising it fears might spill across its own borders, American officials were increasingly concerned that the kingdom’s stability could ultimately be threatened by regional unrest, succession politics and its resistance to reform.

So far, oil-rich Saudi Arabia has successfully stifled public protests with a combination of billions of dollars in new jobs programs and an overwhelming police presence, backed by warnings last week from the foreign minister to “cut any finger that crosses into the kingdom.”

Monday’s action, in which more than 2,000 Saudi-led troops from gulf states crossed the narrow causeway into Bahrain, demonstrated that the Saudis were willing to back their threats with firepower.

The move created another quandary for the Obama administration, which obliquely criticized the Saudi action without explicitly condemning the kingdom, its most important Arab ally. The criticism was another sign of strains in the historically close relationship with Riyadh, as the United States pushes the country to make greater reforms to avert unrest.

Other symptoms of stress seem to be cropping up everywhere.

Saudi officials have made no secret of their deep displeasure with how President Obama handled the ouster of the Egyptian president, Hosni Mubarak, charging Washington with abandoning a longtime ally. They show little patience with American messages about embracing what Mr. Obama calls “universal values,” including peaceful protests.

When Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton were forced to cancel visits to the kingdom in recent days, American officials were left wondering whether the cause was King Abdullah’s frail health — or his pique at the United States.

COMMENT:  I hold no brief for Saudi Arabia.  If countries were cartoon characters, Saudi Arabia would be Mickey Mouse.  It's an artificially constructed country living under tenth-century religious rules.  But it is also regular, premium and super premium (93 octane) all wrapped into one, even though they don't clean the windshields. 

Saudi women may not be allowed to drive, but American women do drive, and they often drive with Saudi oil.

So, for that reason alone, the relationship is important.  We see no sign that the Saudi monarchy is in immediate danger, but, as the story indicates, there are many signs that the Saudis are disgusted with Obama, and may go their own way in terms of oil production, setting prices, and foreign policy.  The Saudis have learned that Obama is a cold man with no permanent friends.  His motto appears to be, "Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for me."  This is not appreciated, and the sense of disappointment in Obama has clearly spread to the Saudi kingdom.

Given this state of affairs, how helpful will the Saudis be in keeping down gasoline prices?  Your turn.

March 14, 2011      Permalink

WHERE OBAMA STANDS – AT 10:28 A.M. ET:  There has been even further deterioration in President Obama's poll numbers.  His lack of leadership, and, at times, apparent indifference to the job, are having a devastating effect.  From Scott Rasmussen, this morning:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 23% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-three percent (43%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -20. That matches the president’s lowest ratings of 2011.

And...

Overall, 44% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty-six percent (56%) disapprove. The president earns approval from 77% of Democrats but disapproval from 89% of Republicans. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 44% approve and 56% disapprove.

COMMENT:  Once again, the key number is the "not affiliated" number, the independents.  It is in the middle where elections are won and lost.  The 12-point gap among independents is staggering.  Of course, we stress that this is one poll, and some have suggested that Rasmussen leans a bit Republican.  But still, even adjusting a bit, the president's decline must be alarming to those with jobs in the administration.  The copying machines will be alive with the sound of career resumés.

March 14, 2011      Permalink

BAHRAIN GOES CRITICAL – AT 9:57 A.M. ET:   Bahrain is the headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet.  It also is across a causeway from Saudi Arabia, and the Saudis aren't about to let anything untoward – like democracy – occur in Bahrain.  From Reuters:

RIYADH - About 1,000 Saudi soldiers entered Bahrain early on Monday to protect government facilities following recent unrest by the country's Shi'ite Muslim majority, a Saudi official source said.

"About 1,000 Saudi soldiers have entered Bahrain early on Monday morning through the causeway to Bahrain," the source told Reuters. "They are part of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) force that would guard the government installations".

COMMENT:  We were supposed to see a "day of rage" in Saudi Arabia last Friday, but Saudi authorities put a damper on it.  The Saudi monarchy is a serious, if ridiculous, business operation, and isn't about to let its power slip.  And with the Libyan rebellion in dire straits, the rulers of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain can't feel under any intense pressure to allow national political conventions anytime soon.

March 14, 2011      Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 9:01 A.M. ET:

From Daily India.com:  Kabul, Mar.14: Al-Qaeda has launched a women's magazine Al Shamikha (meaning the majestic woman), which mixes tips on skin care with articles on 'marrying a mujahedeen' and carrying out suicide attacks...Its cover features the barrel of a sub-machine gun next to the image of a woman in a veil.  The magazine features exclusive interviews with martyrs' wives who praise their husbands' decisions to die in suicide bombings.

And American women are stuck with Cosmopolitan and Vogue.  No excitement.

March 14, 2011       Permalink

JAPAN – AT 8:38 A.M. ET:  From CNN:

Sendai, Japan (CNN) -- In a nation already besieged with grief over mounting casualties, fears of possible radiation and the threat of more earthquakes, the nightmare grew for Japanese residents Monday as thousands of bodies reportedly surfaced and a government official confirmed another explosion at a nuclear reactor building.
The official death toll reached 1,833 on Monday. But the number did not take into account the 2,000 bodies that Japan's Kyodo News said had been found in the hard-hit Miyagi Prefecture on Japan's northeast coast.

If confirmed, the discovery would be the largest yet of victims from the 8.9-magnitude quake and devastating tsunami that hit Japan four days ago.

At least 2,369 people were missing on Monday, the National Police Agency said, and the number of dead is expected to go up as rescuers reach more hard-hit areas.

Meanwhile, a second explosion in two days occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, officials said. The blast took place in the facility's No. 3 reactor building on Monday morning and injured 11. Hours later, the plant's No. 2 reactor lost its cooling capabilities.

COMMENT:  The Western press is obsessing over the nuclear issue, and there has been some radiation release from the failing nuclear plants.  However, thus far it has been very small.  The reactors in question are older models, obsolete by today's standards.  If radiation leakage can be kept at the level we've seen, the tragedy might well prove that nuclear plants, even ancient ones, can withstand the worst that nature can dish out.  But we want to be careful about judgments at this time, as the nuclear story is not over.

What you'll be reading about in coming days, in addition to the human tragedy, is the economic impact.  Many of Japan's leading companies, led by the auto companies, are shut down.  The nation faces a vast rebuilding bill, and will be spending more of its money at home.  Our economy here can be impacted.  Both our interest rates and employment pictures might be changed.

But this is first and foremost a human tragedy.  The death toll, though horrible, could have been much worse if the quake had struck at the heart of Japan, rather than in the less-populated northern region.  And Japan is a modern, efficient society that refuses to play the victim in a catastrophe like this, and gets right to work.

We will be watching this by the hour.

March 14, 2011      Permalink

DEPRESSING LIBYA – AT 8:24 A.M. ET:  The situation for rebels in Libya gets worse by the hour.  From The New York Times:

AJDABIYA, Libya — Military forces loyal to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi cranked up military and psychological pressure against rebels on two fronts on Monday, offering an amnesty to those who surrendered their weapons while bombing a strategic linchpin in the east and surrounding a rebel-held town in the west.

Loyalist warplanes launched fresh strikes against this anxious town on the doorstep of the opposition capital Benghazi within grasp of a highway crucial to recapturing the eastern border and encircling the rebellion with heavy armor and artillery.

COMMENT:  At the same time, our much-reduced secretary of state will be traveling to Paris for "consultations" about Libya.  We're consulting the rebels right out of existence.  The consultations will undoubtedly be followed by more consultations.

Hillary Clinton's role here is intriguing, and depressing.  I really can't believe she goes along with Obama's knuckleheaded foreign policy.  She's a stronger man than he is.  And she's been reduced to being head of the administration's messenger and postage department.

We've wondered here before whether Hillary will resign.  If the Libyan rebellion fails, and we are humiliated, having demanded that Qadaffi leave, that would be a perfect time for her to say goodbye.  If she doesn't, she might go down with a sinking ship.

On the other hand, maybe she likes the perks and the free travel.  You never know.

If Obama's poll numbers collapse, Hillary can be waiting in the wings.  But she'd better be in the wings, and not onstage.

March 14, 2011     Permalink